Up 30% YoY: Shopee’s Breakout Year in Brazil Is Just Beginning

According to the latest report released by BTG Pactual, Brazil’s e-commerce gross merchandise value (GMV) reached approximately BRL 330 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow by 15% in 2025, pushing the market close to BRL 380 billion.

As Brazil approaches a nearly BRL 400 billion e-commerce economy, competition among Shopee Brasil, Mercado Libre (Meli), Amazon, and Temu has entered a new phase. The battle is no longer about who can grow faster with subsidies, but about who can operate more like a true Brazilian company.

This marks the second half of the game — where localization, infrastructure, and long-term commitment matter more than short-term scale.

Shopee: BRL 70 Billion GMV and Nearly 30% Growth

In BTG Pactual’s 2025 outlook, Shopee stands out as the most important variable in Brazil’s e-commerce landscape.

The report projects Shopee’s GMV in Brazil to reach BRL 70 billion in 2025, up from roughly BRL 50 billion in 2024 — representing close to 30% year-on-year growth.

To put this into perspective, Brazil’s overall e-commerce market is growing at around 15% annually. Shopee is expanding at nearly twice the industry average.

More importantly, this growth is no longer driven by early-stage price subsidies or aggressive traffic incentives. Instead, it reflects structural strength built through deep localization amid broader market volatility.

From “Cross-Border Platform” to Local Brazilian Player

While many international sellers continue to debate how tariffs or cross-border policies may affect Shopee, the reality is that Shopee is no longer a purely cross-border marketplace in Brazil.

Today, over 90% of Shopee Brasil’s GMV comes from local sellers.

This transformation was particularly evident during Shopee’s fifth anniversary celebration in Brazil. Instead of delivering remarks in English, Shopee’s CEO addressed the audience in fluent Portuguese — a symbolic yet powerful gesture in a region where language and cultural alignment carry significant weight.

The message was clear: Shopee is not a temporary foreign entrant seeking quick returns. It is positioning itself to become a long-term local champion, comparable to Mercado Libre.

Shopee has now built a base of over 3 million active local sellers in Brazil, ranging from established national brands to wholesalers operating in São Paulo’s famous Rua 25 de Março. This level of seller density creates product variety and price competitiveness that pure cross-border models simply cannot sustain.

Logistics as the Core Competitive Moat

Shopee’s confidence in targeting BRL 70 billion GMV in 2025 is rooted in what it has quietly built beneath the surface: a highly localized logistics network.

Shopee is currently the second-largest warehouse tenant in Brazil, operating more than 13 major distribution centers alongside hundreds of sorting hubs nationwide. Through Shopee Express, its proprietary logistics arm, the company has established dense “capillary-level” delivery coverage across the country.

To address Brazil’s uniquely challenging geography, Shopee even launched a dedicated air cargo route between São Paulo and Manaus, cutting delivery times from nearly two weeks down to just a few days.

In a country defined by distance, logistics efficiency is not an operational detail — it is a growth lever.

Mercado Libre’s Defensive Strategy

As Brazil’s long-standing e-commerce leader, Mercado Libre faces unprecedented pressure heading into 2025.

BTG’s analysis shows that excluding Asian platforms, Meli still holds about 47% market share. However, once Shopee and other global entrants are included, that share drops closer to 39%.

To defend its position, Mercado Libre has adopted a far more aggressive and localized strategy:

• Lowering the free-shipping threshold: Historically strong in mid-to-high ticket items, Meli reduced its free-shipping minimum from BRL 79 to just BRL 19, directly responding to Shopee’s price pressure.
• Leveraging fintech strength: Mercado Pago continues to provide strong user stickiness. With consumer credit penetration rising, BTG expects Meli to maintain 25–30% growth in 2025, offsetting competitive pressure from Shopee and Amazon.

Amazon’s Capital Offensive and Temu’s Price Shock

Beyond the Shopee–Meli standoff, two other forces are reshaping the competitive landscape.

Amazon has shown unprecedented ambition from late 2024 into 2025. To secure high-quality supply, Amazon introduced zero-commission onboarding policies in Brazil and waived large portions of FBA storage fees. BTG analysts view this as a capital-driven growth strategy aimed at squeezing both local incumbents and fast-growing platforms like Shopee.

Temu, meanwhile, represents a new but volatile variable. Despite its recent entry, Temu reportedly generated several billion reais in sales within its first year in Brazil. While its scale remains far smaller than Shopee or Mercado Libre, its ultra-low-price model is rapidly capturing price-sensitive consumers in lower-tier markets — a segment Shopee is actively defending.

Industry Outlook: Localization Determines the Winners

The defining theme of Brazil’s e-commerce market in 2024–2025 is no longer expansion at all costs, but localized competition within a mature market.

For Shopee, BRL 70 billion GMV is more than a number — it marks a successful transition. Through 3 million local sellers, automated domestic fulfillment centers powered by Shopee Express, and deep cultural integration, Shopee Brasil has evolved from a foreign entrant into a genuinely local e-commerce platform.

For Chinese sellers observing Brazil, the message is equally clear: this is no longer a market where simple product copying or relabeling guarantees easy profits.

When Shopee executives negotiate in Portuguese with sellers from small Brazilian towns, and when logistics routes extend directly to Manaus, the market has already entered an era of local players competing on local terms.

Those who can truly embed themselves into Brazil’s economic and logistical “capillaries” — as Shopee has done — will be the ones still standing after 2026.